Professional Grade: 3 teams for one spot
GMC Pro Grade League: Week 13
Well, folks, this is it. It's Week 13 in the GMC Professional Grade League, the final week of our regular season.
Of our 10 teams, three have already clinched playoff spots, and four have been eliminated -- mine included, unfortunately -- leaving three teams holding out hope of that elusive No. 4, and final, playoff seed: Eric Karabell (7-5, 4th, beat Christopher Harris, 86-41, in Week 12), Nate Ravitz (5-5-2, 5th, beat Nando Di Fino, 119-103, in Week 12) and Stephania Bell (6-6, 6th, beat me, 72-59, in Week 12). It's those tight races that usually reveal the most interesting lineup/waiver strategies, so let's take a look at each:
" Having won each of his past three games and seven of nine after an 0-3 start, Karabell controls his own playoff destiny. Beat Di Fino, the league's last-place team, and he's in. Lose, and things don't look so good. Karabell himself admits he's in bad shape in a league that uses total points for the season as its tiebreaker; he boasts the league's second-fewest points (972), and both Ravitz (1,113) and Bell (1,002) have more.
Still, Karabell is still prospecting ahead, remaining confident in his chances. This week, he picked up rookie Garrett Wolfe, currently considered the second-in-line for the starting running back role in Chicago, behind the "other" Adrian Peterson.
"Hey, I keep talking about this guy on TV," he said. "I have to heed my own advice and sign him before this week's game. I won't activate him, but do think he might be worth it if I have meaningful December games."
As for Week 13, Karabell's toughest choice was at No. 2 running back, where he had his pick of career disappointment Ron Dayne or touchdown-less Thomas Jones.
"Jones has three 100-yard games all season, and one was against this week's foe, Miami," said Karabell. "I'm saying it here: Jones will score, too!"
" Ravitz's record might not look as pretty as Karabell's, but since those two ties of his represent the equivalent of one win -- each is awarded as a half-win -- he'd be the favorite to squeak in as the No. 4 seed should Karabell lose. Of course, Ravitz would first need to beat Ken Daube (7-5, 3rd, beat Howie Schwab, 132-85, in Week 12), the league's highest-scoring team, which is no easy task.
To that end, faced with the difficult choice between two defenses going head-to-head, the Lions and Vikings, Ravitz went with history. Minnesota, a 20-point fantasy performer defensively in these teams' Week 2 meeting, got his nod over Detroit, which scored 13 in that contest. In addition, fantasy owners should be aware that in three games in the Jon Kitna era, the Lions have turned the ball over 15 times combined against the Vikings. Nine of those, by the way, were Kitna interceptions.
Ravitz also wasn't willing to take any chances with Reggie Bush, coming off a shin injury and having totaled 173 yards with no scores in three career games against the Buccaneers.
"I'm leaning toward putting Bush on the bench," said Ravitz. "He just looks bad right now and is obviously not 100 percent. With Joey Galloway and Hines Ward having great matchups, I want to play them both and hope at least one delivers a huge game."
" Bell, who knocked me out of contention in Week 12, now must beat current No. 2 seed Matthew Berry (7-4-1, lost to Scott Engel, 136-111, in Week 12) to have a chance at advancing. The very fact she's still in the race, though, is remarkable, considering the bad luck she's had on the injury front. Case in point: Brett Favre already earned her minus-2 points before getting hurt Thursday night, putting her in a bit of an early hole.
"I, like many of my players, am under the weather," said Bell. "In fact, I am seriously wondering about the mojo you put on me with the Favre trade. It wasn't enough to keep me from beating you last week, but is it going to prevent me from beating TMR?"
Bell already finds herself in the hunt for a new defense, with the Ravens slated to face the Patriots, a matchup I'd never advise even for a defense performing well, and the Cardinals coming off a minus-4 Week 12 effort against the 49ers. Bell had yet to pick her one-week sub at press time, but among by best bets, of those available in our league: Broncos, Chiefs and Dolphins, in that order. Yup, our waiver wire is pretty bone dry.
Though Berry, Schwab and Daube are all guaranteed spots in the playoffs -- Daube's 142-point advantage over Ravitz in total points assures he'll win any tiebreaker -- seeding remains an interest for each. After all, the No. 1 seed remains up for grabs, so all three faced lineup dilemmas of their own in the regular season's final week.
Schwab (8-4, 1st, lost to Daube, 132-85, in Week 12) opted to keep Adrian Peterson, whom he actually drafted back in August and kept stashed all year, on his bench. Still, in a week where Schwab needs to beat me to lock down the league's top seed, I can understand his reasoning for keeping the game's newest starting running back benched.
"I am a Giants fan so I can't root for him this week," said Schwab, who confidently kept Willis McGahee active instead, in spite of his matchup with the Patriots.
Berry, needing a win against playoff hopeful Bell to have any shot at a No. 1 seed, at least knows he can rest comfortably with, at worst, a No. 2 playoff spot.
"I'm basically taking the 'if it ain't broke, don't fix it' approach," said Berry. "Thanks to Tom Brady, I've got some cushion. Plus even with injuries to Marshawn Lynch and Laurence Maroney's down season, Willie Parker and Justin Fargas will lead the way until Lynch gets back."
Of our three current playoff entrants, Daube appears to most have his sights set on the No. 1 seed. He'll need some help -- both from me (against Schwab) and Bell (against Berry) -- and needs to hope for better weather in Pittsburgh this week in his own matchup.
"The current weather forecast calls for 60 percent chance of rain on Sunday night, so I'll monitor that closely," said Daube. "As insurance [for Carson Palmer], I've picked up Kurt Warner, who faces the Cleveland Browns. Heck, Warner's matchup is so sweet, I might have to start him over Palmer regardless.
"What concerns me is Chris Henry, as I am starting him because I really love his matchup versus the Steel Curtain. In two games last year versus Pittsburgh he hauled in three touchdowns and averaged 97 yards per game. I picked him for a must-start in my 'Alone on an Island' piece for Week 13 Fantasy Football Primer. If the field in Pittsburgh is as bad as it was last week, it's going to be tough for him to light it up like I think he can, but I'll take that chance on him regardless."
Unfortunately, in a league full of experts, analysts, prognosticators, whatever label you choose, someone has to fall short of the playoffs. To be fair, though, it speaks volumes about the parity in our league that no one team lost fewer than four games, no one won fewer than three and all but one won at least five.
Turning our focus to the out-of-the-running teams, I posed a simple question, the title of this section, to each of our four eliminated owners -- myself included.
" Di Fino (3-9, 10th, lost to Ravitz, 119-103, in Week 12) has seemed to relish his spoiler role, effectively knocking Engel out of the playoffs in Week 11, then putting up 103 points to put a scare into postseason hopeful Ravitz. Still, Di Fino couldn't survive a 1-3 start, then a five-game losing streak from Weeks 6-10.
"I was hoping for a comeback season for Carnell Williams, a continuation of good things for Frank Gore, and a huge leap forward for Matt Leinart," said Di Fino. "What I got were weeks of frustration from Gore -- before trading him to Engel for the equally frustrating Shaun Alexander -- and two big, red IRs next to Williams and Leinart.
"I'm not going to run outside and start ripping out grass, swearing to never be hungry again, but let's look at the facts: 1. Only Ravitz and Berry had more points scored against them than my squad of misfit toys; 2. I made three critically wrong guesses in drafting Reuben Droughns, Michael Bennett, and Vernand Morency; and 3. I never recovered from Ken Daube telling the world I named a team after a Journey song. I think the best thing to do would be print this out, grab a red Sharpie, close your eyes, and just circle something at random. There were maybe 1,231 points in the season when it all went wrong, but your guess as to when it really all went wrong is as good as mine."
" Christopher Harris (5-7, 9th, lost to Karabell, 86-41, in Week 12) was a man of many streaks this season; he kicked off the year 0-3 only to rally for four straight wins from Weeks 4-7 to get back into the race. An ensuing three-game losing streak, though, proved his ultimate undoing, including losses to Berry and Schwab.
"Larry Johnson's injury is what sunk me," said Harris. "I started slow (three straight losses), but I'd won four straight and then dropped a four-point heartbreaker to Howie. I still had a shot, baby. Then LJ's Lisfranc went all Duce Staley on me, and all was lost. Oh, sure, I was able to patchwork LenDale White into the mix for a while (that looked like a pretty darned good pick in the 10th round, at least until the last three games), and even Lee Evans and Vince Young carried their weight for a brief heartbeat. But without that reliable stud in the middle of my lineup, we were a house of cards waiting to fall, and fall we did. You can't plan for injuries, but you can plan for Vince Young not being a starting fantasy quarterback, and I failed to do that in August. Ah, well. We'll get 'em next year."
" As for me (5-7, 8th, lost to Bell, 72-59, in Week 12), it'd be easy to say the Week 12 loss to Stephania, or the Week 11 loss to Matthew, but the truth is the day my season went sour was Sept. 23, when Steven Jackson tore his groin. Injuries happen, granted, but when you lose the No. 2 overall pick for four weeks, it puts you in a hole in terms of roster depth, forcing you into a patchwork strategy to fill lineup spots, or make desperation moves to get by. Sure, many of this year's first-rounders have similarly disappointed, even No. 1 overall pick LaDainian Tomlinson, but what separates him from Jackson is that even in underachieving, at least he played every week. Don't underestimate what health -- and a stable lineup -- does for a fantasy team. I'm proud enough to have hung in the race the 12 weeks I did, but sadly, luck was not on my side in the end.
" Scott Engel (5-6-1, 7th, beat Berry, 136-111, in Week 12) might have unearthed two of the game's most productive quarterbacks of 2007 -- Derek Anderson and Ben Roethlisberger -- and has three 100-point efforts in the past four weeks, but unfortunately was unable to recover from a 1-5-1 performance from Weeks 2-8.
"My first two draft choices were a big disappointment and I spent most of the season trying to replace both of them," said Engel. "Shaun Alexander and Travis Henry basically helped send me into an early tailspin, and Adrian Peterson's injury really finished me off. Donald Driver never quite performed up to expectations, either. Tying Nate didn't help, but my early faith in Alexander and Henry sent me into an early losing skid I couldn't recover from. Right now, if you look at my team, it's as good as any, but my squad is a prime lesson about how you may want consider not drafting two running backs with your first two picks anymore. Too many have underperformed this year."
Tristan H. Cockcroft covers fantasy sports for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here.
